Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 51740.329434 54862.713764 57993.641693 61366.109288 64893.517166 68471.462818 72372.456690
2024-10-20 46312.528796 51039.506119 55922.420070 61334.983046 67158.318677 73226.827746 80020.545914
2024-10-27 42329.483724 48104.555580 54211.888874 61134.747601 68746.700025 76843.809780 86090.579362
2024-11-03 40069.785925 46706.734877 53862.263297 62122.102010 71364.463818 81358.293445 92951.805877
2024-11-10 38103.012993 45419.233023 53441.797298 62850.131546 73537.764201 85257.561945 99036.010699
2024-11-17 36222.002641 44070.146328 52809.744852 63206.569287 75178.191969 88471.024541 104284.606147
2024-11-24 34364.537393 42620.973513 51948.672543 63193.273109 76303.711718 91028.516913 108735.093449
2024-12-01 32897.596480 41534.483562 51422.683819 63488.903005 77718.303487 93866.427315 113473.845345
2024-12-08 31436.128870 40372.871000 50735.289564 63527.170795 78775.313840 96248.912034 117659.049150
2024-12-15 30586.776350 39895.644964 50814.416202 64433.933902 80825.475276 99772.938960 123176.372492
2024-12-22 29248.576345 38758.928731 50045.409641 64272.555708 81562.051225 101722.023210 126823.836093
2024-12-29 28619.206830 38462.664205 50266.358726 65284.259666 83690.550199 105316.461536 132432.438389
2025-01-05 27734.138595 37825.020208 50056.839671 65769.789343 85197.477895 108202.233970 137254.071367
2025-01-12 26688.157480 36944.241623 49512.637177 65814.622307 86148.000761 110412.965012 141274.387528
2025-01-19 25597.406423 35963.025863 48803.819789 65618.634814 86773.005880 112210.311899 144787.263603
2025-01-26 25146.339460 35788.358332 49096.090652 66666.639563 88936.326432 115889.985534 150613.651850
2025-02-02 24602.364673 35467.526635 49181.842683 67437.557095 90745.397470 119136.864547 155925.258205
2025-02-09 23920.589179 34937.259876 48974.766772 67814.766392 92045.496588 121750.655187 160463.951342
2025-02-16 23111.737960 34207.586881 48482.375840 67800.729378 92830.917119 123714.100330 164195.900102
2025-02-23 22480.938469 33695.793680 48255.201433 68113.461002 94022.015150 126181.605111 168564.080947
2025-03-02 21773.454940 33054.611625 47834.990949 68153.941770 94848.256219 128182.721302 172349.841534
2025-03-09 21461.514771 32947.126282 48116.326073 69113.034363 96864.260892 131698.781409 178067.304343
2025-03-16 20732.013818 32233.264243 47561.355013 68942.354196 97393.195505 133314.022052 181376.153402